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В блогах на сайте Harvard Business Publishing (книги, журналы) появился интересный пост под названием Why American Consumers Will Spend Lavishly Again. Автор – Grant McCracke.
Статья привлекла мой интерес вторым абзацем:
The "new normal" — the idea that when income, credit and confidence return, Americans will not return to our free-spending ways — is an idea on the march, recruiting everyone from PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian to Wal-Mart CEO Mike Duke. It's spreading so fast it threatens to become the new orthodoxy.
I believe the argument is flawed. When Mike Duke says, "[P]eople are saving more, consuming less, and being more frugal and thoughtful in their purchases," he is right in the short term, but wrong in the long term. When income, credit, and confidence return, consumers will party like its 1999.
Вот его логика:
We've never had a good explanation for why consumers consume. So when they stop consuming, it's easy to think they will never start again. If pressed, we say consumption is about vanity, status, greed, cheap money and the consumers' own brand of irrational exuberance. Even in good times, we keep expecting consumers to come to their senses. In tough times, we think, but of course they will. A new normal is inevitable.
Интересно, что г-н МакКрак свои рассуждения основывает не на экономических или бизнес-оценках, а на своем опыте антропололога-этнографа.
As a classically trained anthropologist, I have spent many years doing ethnographic research in American homes. This represents hundreds and hundreds of hours of careful listening, two hours at a time. I know the American consumer as few do.
Let me introduce you to Susan Householder. Here she is, standing in the entrance of her garage in a middle class suburb of Ridgefield, New York. She is surveying a mountain of stuff: bicycles, toboggans, a work bench, exercise equipment, canned goods, Christmas decorations, a picnic hamper, board games, lots of wrapping paper, several boxes of stem ware, and lots and lots of containers, contents unknown. There's so much stuff here, this ceased to be a garage a long time ago. It's now a storage locker, Susan's very own U-Store-It. (Cars are consigned to the drive way.) If we wanted a monument to all the spending Susan did in the 00s, this is it.
What created this mountain of stuff? Was it irrational exuberance and cheap money? It was not. This crowded garage springs from cultural motives. These things were not purchased to express vanity or pursue status. They were purchased to help Susan build a life.
Если верить товарищу антропологу, то избыточное потребление вызвано теми человеческими качествами, которые гораздо ближе к основанию пирамиды Маслоу, чем vanity, status и прочая бяка.
Вот как он завершает:
Right now Susan is hunkered down. She and her husband have scaled back expenditure. But this much is clear: The cultural motives of Susan's consumption have not changed. When circumstances allow, she will return to spending enthusiastically to fashion her children, her family, and herself. The "new normalists" missed one thing. Susan has real and substantial motives for spending. When income, credit, and confidence return, she's going to start spending again.
Что-то я не думаю, что товарищ прав... Но мнение интересненькое.
Статья привлекла мой интерес вторым абзацем:
The "new normal" — the idea that when income, credit and confidence return, Americans will not return to our free-spending ways — is an idea on the march, recruiting everyone from PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian to Wal-Mart CEO Mike Duke. It's spreading so fast it threatens to become the new orthodoxy.
I believe the argument is flawed. When Mike Duke says, "[P]eople are saving more, consuming less, and being more frugal and thoughtful in their purchases," he is right in the short term, but wrong in the long term. When income, credit, and confidence return, consumers will party like its 1999.
Вот его логика:
We've never had a good explanation for why consumers consume. So when they stop consuming, it's easy to think they will never start again. If pressed, we say consumption is about vanity, status, greed, cheap money and the consumers' own brand of irrational exuberance. Even in good times, we keep expecting consumers to come to their senses. In tough times, we think, but of course they will. A new normal is inevitable.
Интересно, что г-н МакКрак свои рассуждения основывает не на экономических или бизнес-оценках, а на своем опыте антропололога-этнографа.
As a classically trained anthropologist, I have spent many years doing ethnographic research in American homes. This represents hundreds and hundreds of hours of careful listening, two hours at a time. I know the American consumer as few do.
Let me introduce you to Susan Householder. Here she is, standing in the entrance of her garage in a middle class suburb of Ridgefield, New York. She is surveying a mountain of stuff: bicycles, toboggans, a work bench, exercise equipment, canned goods, Christmas decorations, a picnic hamper, board games, lots of wrapping paper, several boxes of stem ware, and lots and lots of containers, contents unknown. There's so much stuff here, this ceased to be a garage a long time ago. It's now a storage locker, Susan's very own U-Store-It. (Cars are consigned to the drive way.) If we wanted a monument to all the spending Susan did in the 00s, this is it.
What created this mountain of stuff? Was it irrational exuberance and cheap money? It was not. This crowded garage springs from cultural motives. These things were not purchased to express vanity or pursue status. They were purchased to help Susan build a life.
Если верить товарищу антропологу, то избыточное потребление вызвано теми человеческими качествами, которые гораздо ближе к основанию пирамиды Маслоу, чем vanity, status и прочая бяка.
Вот как он завершает:
Right now Susan is hunkered down. She and her husband have scaled back expenditure. But this much is clear: The cultural motives of Susan's consumption have not changed. When circumstances allow, she will return to spending enthusiastically to fashion her children, her family, and herself. The "new normalists" missed one thing. Susan has real and substantial motives for spending. When income, credit, and confidence return, she's going to start spending again.
Что-то я не думаю, что товарищ прав... Но мнение интересненькое.
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